Aurubis Shares on the Capital Market
High volatility on stock markets
Developments on the stock markets were strongly impacted by the policies of the world’s leading central banks during fiscal year 2015/16. Hopes for both additional monetary easing measures from the European Central Bank and a postponement of the US interest rate reversal drove the DAX to 11,382 points in November 2015. At the turn of 2015/16, uncertainties related to the US interest rate reversal, the weak commodity markets with a massive oil price decline and renewed concerns about the Chinese economy strained stock markets. The DAX reached the fiscal-year low of 8,753 points on February 11, 2016. The upward trend on the markets that took effect in mid-February was dampened again by the Brexit decision of the British people on June 23, 2016. The DAX fell below the 10,000-point mark. Supported by more robust economic data from the eurozone and the US, as well as the US Federal Reserve’s postponement of the interest rate increase, however, the markets recovered in the following months and the DAX closed at 10,511 points on September 30, 2016. The development of the MDAX, in which Aurubis is listed, was aligned with the DAX.
Aurubis shares strained by profit-taking and volatile market developments after very good start
Aurubis shares had a very good start to fiscal year 2015/16. Supported by our good results in 2015, the stock markets’ upswing and the resulting positive analyst assessments, it reached a new all-time high of € 61.68 on October 23, 2015. After the record results of fiscal year 2014/15 were published on December 11, 2015, the share price nevertheless fell by 19 % compared to the previous day, to € 46.79. The prospect of much lower results in fiscal year 2015/16, primarily due to our large-scale shutdown scheduled in Pirdop and the weakening scrap and sulfuric acid markets, led to profit-taking in a nervous market environment. The general negative market trend in the commodity sector and the profit warning on January 27, 2016 placed additional pressure on the Aurubis share price, causing it to hit the fiscal-year low of € 37.54 on January 29, 2016. With the upward tendency on the capital markets starting in mid-February, and our business development fulfilling the expectations of capital market actors, the shares gained ground again as the year went on and recovered to € 50.99 on September 23, 2016. The shares ended the fiscal year at € 49.88 on September 30, 2016. The price decrease compared to the record-breaking year 2014/15 was therefore 12 %. During the same period, the MDAX rose by 12 % and the DAX increased by 9 %. Market capitalization was € 2,242 million as at fiscal year-end (previous year: € 2,558 million).
Aurubis share performance compared with the DAX and MDAX, from October 1, 2015
to September 30, 2016
Aurubis shares remain an attractive investment. Shareholders who invested a converted amount of € 1,000 at the time of Aurubis’ initial public offering in 1998 and reinvested the dividends they received (without a tax deduction) into Aurubis shares had a portfolio value of € 6,693 at the end of September 2016. This is a 570 % increase in value or a total annual return of 10.99 %. The MDAX recorded a 356 % increase in value during the same period.
Trading volume of Aurubis shares exceeds previous year
The share price volatility was reflected in the trading volume: the daily average Xetra trading volume increased by 6 % to 204,776 shares (previous year: 193,641 shares).
Proportion of institutional investors increases slightly
Aurubis maintained its stable and well-diversified shareholder structure in fiscal year 2015/16. Salzgitter AG continues to hold 25 % of the share capital. An analysis of the shareholder structure carried out in October 2016 showed that the proportion of institutional investors increased to 46 % (previous year: 40 %). This category grew in North America and Germany in particular. Most institutional investors are located outside Germany. The proportion of shares held by retail shareholders decreased to 29 % (previous year: 35 %).
Executive Board and Supervisory Board suggest dividend of € 1.25
The objective of our dividend policy is to allow our shareholders to participate in the Company’s success adequately and continuously. The Executive Board and Supervisory Board intend to recommend a dividend of € 1.25 at the Annual General Meeting on March 2, 2017. This corresponds to a payout ratio of 46 % of Aurubis AG’s earnings (previous year: 53 %). The return on the share based on the closing price as at September 30, 2016 amounts to 2.5 % (previous year: 2.4 %).
Intensive dialogue with institutional and retail investors
The volatile market environment, the varying developments on our sub-markets and the Company’s resulting earnings trend led to a high demand for information among capital market participants in fiscal year 2015/16. We therefore continued to expand our intensive communication with institutional and retail investors and other interested individuals about developments in our business promptly, continuously and purposefully using different channels.
For example, we expanded the features of the online Annual Report on our website and made it even more user-friendly.
Dialogue with institutional investors was once again a significant pillar of our capital market communication. At a number of capital market conferences and roadshows at the main financial centers in Europe and North America, we presented the Aurubis Group’s business situation and potential to institutional investors and financial analysts. When the quarterly reports were published, the Executive Board explained the results and future outlook for the fiscal year in conference calls and in a live event. Moreover, investors visited our sites in Hamburg and Lünen to learn about our operating processes, plants and products.
In September 2016 we invited analysts and institutional investors to the “Aurubis Capital Market Day” in Hamburg. With technical presentations and a plant tour, we provided participants with firsthand, comprehensive insights into our operating business.
Aurubis AG is observed by a number of international financial analysts. A total of 21 financial institutions regularly published recommendations and analyses about Aurubis’ shares during fiscal year 2015/16. Berenberg and Credit Suisse, two renowned international banks, began covering Aurubis for the first time. The ratings were as follows at the end of the fiscal year:
Overview of analyst recommendations
We had the opportunity to speak with our retail shareholders during two dialogue events in Hamburg and Lünen. This provided them with the opportunity to get to know the sites and to receive information about the Group’s current development and economic environment in discussions with the Executive Board and other employees. We also held additional presentations for retail shareholders at events organized by private shareholder associations. The high level of interest in our shares was also evident at our well-attended Annual General Meeting on February 24, 2016, in which 1,500 shareholders participated.
We used ad hoc announcements to keep the capital markets informed about notable developments. These included an announcement on October 2, 2015 about the appointment of Mr. Jürgen Schachler as the new Executive Board Chairman of the Aurubis Group, a profit warning on January 27, 2016 and a positive profit alert on April 25, 2016.
Key figures of Aurubis shares
|2015/16 2)||2014/15 2)||2013/14 2)||2012/13 2)||2011/12 2)|
|Closing price as at fiscal year-end 1)||in €||49.88||56.90||39.16||44.80||45.35|
|Year high (close) 1)||in €||61.68||59.68||49.49||57.24||46.60|
|Year low (close) 1)||in €||37.54||36.43||36.19||38.68||35.44|
|Market capitalization as at fiscal year-end 1)||in € million||2,242||2,558||1,761||2,014||2,039|
|Number of shares as at fiscal year-end||in thousand units||44,956.7||44,956.7||44,956.7||44,956.7||44,956.7|
|Dividend or recommended dividend||in €||1.25||1.35||1.00||1.10||1.35|
|Payout ratio||in %||46||53||51||46||54|
|Dividend yield||in %||2.5||2.4||2.6||2.5||3.0|
|Operating earnings per share||in €||3.64||5.68||2.17||2.06||4.58|
|Operating price/earnings ratio as at fiscal year-end||13.70||10.02||18.05||21.75||9.90|
|1) Xetra disclosures.
2) Values “operationally” adjusted by valuation results from the use of the average cost method in accordance with IAS 2, by copper price-related valuation effects on inventories and by effects from the purchase price allocation, mainly property, plant and equipment, from fiscal year 2010/11 onwards.
Information on Aurubis shares
|Security identification number:||676650|
|International Securities Identification Number (ISIN):||DE 000 67 66 504|
|Stock market segment:||MDAX|
|Stock exchanges:||Regulated market: Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg; unofficial market: Berlin, Düsseldorf, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart, Tradegate|
|Market segment:||Prime Standard|
|Issue price:||€ 12.78|
|Average daily trading volume:||204,776 shares in Xetra trading|
|Deutsche Börse code:||NDA|
Analyst coverage 2015/16
|Baader Bank||Christian Obst|
|Bankhaus Lampe||Marc Gabriel|
|Bank of America/Merrill Lynch||Cedar Ekblom|
|Credit Suisse||James Gurry|
|Deutsche Bank||Katja Filzek|
|DZ Bank||Dirk Schlamp|
|Exane BNP Paribas||Daniel Lurch|
|Goldman Sachs||Eugene King|
|Hauck & Aufhäuser||Henning Breiter|
|Independent Research GmbH||Sven Diermeier|
|Kepler Cheuvreux||Rochus Brauneiser|
|Macquarie Research||Alon Olsha|
|Morgan Stanley||Dan Shaw|
|Quirin Bank AG||Klaus Soer|
|Steubing AG||Michael Broeker|
|M.M. Warburg||Eggert Kuls|